Alex Mooney, a member of the House Freedom Caucus with strong backing from the Club for Growth Action, which, along with an allied super PAC, has announced raising nearly $13.6 million to support his bid. Jim Justice – a Democrat-turned-Republican whose party switch mirrors the partisan realignment of the state. National Republicans are firmly behind Gov. For now, he appears to be keeping his options open while watching the Republican primary boil.
He did step up his fundraising in the second quarter, which is usually a sign an incumbent is gearing up for another race. The moderate Democrat – widely seen as the only Democrat who could hold this Senate seat in a state Trump twice carried by double digits – has said he won’t make a decision about running for reelection until the end of the year. Joe Manchin is in the spotlight after a trip to New Hampshire sparked speculation about a potential third-party presidential bid. Democrats hold seven of the 10 seats most likely to flip next year, an independent holds one and Republicans hold two – a breakdown that’s unlikely to change much, although the order of the ranking will likely evolve in the months to come. Overall, the Senate map remains an offensive opportunity for Republicans. The expectation that Dave McCormick will get into the race with a clearer lane – and the GOP’s lack of candidates right now in other states – bumps the Keystone State up one spot on this list as slightly more likely to flip. In Pennsylvania, Republicans breathed a major sigh of relief in May when election denier Doug Mastriano, fresh off his 15-point gubernatorial loss, decided not to run. This month’s ranking isn’t all about primary drama, however. Matt Rosendale hasn’t yet announced his campaign but is expected to challenge the NRSC’s preferred candidate.) CNN reported that he’s informed two House Freedom Caucus members whom he’s previously backed – in West Virginia and Montana – that they won’t have his support for the Senate. And for now, at least, the former president appears to be playing along.
But adherence to his election conspiracy theories has sometimes hurt Republicans in general elections, with the 2022 midterms being a prime example. Ever since 2016, loyalty to him has been a key litmus test for the GOP – often much more than actual conservatism. It’s impossible to talk about Republican primaries without discussing former President Donald Trump. And, as in other races like Montana and Nevada, this one will test the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s new strategy of picking sides in primaries. This race will be a marquee battle between the national GOP’s more establishment forces and the conservative outside group. West Virginia’s GOP primary – mainly between the governor and a congressman – was already brewing, but it’s looking even more contentious with outside groups like the Club for Growth’s political arm touting the millions they’re planning to spend. (Rankings are based on CNN’s reporting, fundraising figures and historical data about how states and candidates have performed.) That’s especially true in the top three seats most likely to flip, which represent the GOP’s best chances to pick up the one or two seats they’d need to control the chamber, depending on who wins the presidency. With more candidates launching their campaigns this month, the prospect of competitive primaries has become more real – especially on the Republican side.
But the start of the second fundraising quarter earlier this month brought a host of new candidate names – some declared and some still biding their time – that will help shape the race for control of the chamber in 2024 and the ultimate power dynamics for whoever is president in 2025. In a presidential contest cycle, Senate races don’t get the same kind of attention when there’s still a year to go until Election Day.
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